Thursday, April 9, 2009
BOE CHAIRMAN HANSON ABUSIVE OF FELLOW BOARD MEMBER
Dwight D. Eisenhower
A dismal display of a lack of leadership and abuse was experienced by Dr. Siebert as Kim Hanson, Chairman of the BOE makes a motion to adjourn the meeting as Dr. Siebert is in the middle of a explanation and discussion on school building options. This is a example why nothing gets accomplished on the boards and commissions in New Fairfield and why there are many open seats.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ... MHHS & HS
Here is a comparison of the various enrollment projections for our schools (MHHS and HS).
1) The first was done by Peter Prowda when he was still with the state. He was the state's official enrollment projector until he left and the state eliminated the position. It is the oldest projection being done before the '07 school year. I believe he used a ratio cohort method. I don't know how long a time he averaged the data over, but in the past he used either 3, 5 or 7 years. I suspect his estimates used one of the shorter averaging periods.
2) In early ’08, John Boccuzzi used a modified additive cohort method, averaging the last 10 years. As the school population is decreasing, this uses the high years of the past to project the future. He averages rather than doing a trend, and adds rather than ratioing. Both these effects lead to overestimation. I sent him e-mails showing the overestimation.
3) The first NESDEC estimate (NESDEC1 ~4/08) used a human to select ratios that looked "reasonable”. In my opinion they also used inflated birth rates.* It also violates the states auditing directions from the Portland case. This is now the official data the NFBOE adopted.
4) As a result of my criticisms, NESDEC then did a standard 3-yr cohort survival method (which they claim is widely accepted as the best averaging time) also about 4/08. This is NESDEC2
(Average. This is the average of the above four estimates. It was used for comparison with NESDEC3, done a year later, with prior estimates.)
5) NESDEC3 is their latest estimate done after the 2008 enrollment data was available (11/08). This apparently uses the same methodology of NESDEC1.
The actual enrollment in (October 1) 2007, 2008 was 700, 668 for MHHS and 939, 975 for the HS. The state requires 8 years of projection beyond the submission date.
MHHS grades 3-5
Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
Prowda | 698 | 651 | 620 | 610 | 586 | 577 | 527 | 515 | 479 | 484 |
Boccuzzi | 704 | 702 | 657 | 631 | 630 | 642 | 616 | 600 | 556 | 546 |
NESDEC1 |
| 662 | 636 | 621 | 592 | 583 | 530 | 524 | 488 | 517 |
NESDEC2 |
| 660 | 633 | 617 | 579 | 560 | 501 | 497 | 464 | 490 |
Above Av. | 701 | 668¾ | 636½ | 619¾ | 596¾ | 590½ | 543½ | 534 | 496¾ | 509¼ |
NESDEC3 | 700a | 668a | 643 | 621 | 614 | 604 | 557 | 517 | 492 | 510 |
Estimated from children born assumed births
HS grades 9-12
Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
Prowda | 944 | 950 | 978 | 926 | 921 | 910 | 880 | 857 | 819 | 793 |
Boccuzzi | 948 | 964 | 1003 | 963 | 963 | 959 | 933 | 914 | 877 | 858 |
NESDEC1 |
| 952 | 987 | 947 | 939 | 929 | 897 | 871 | 844 | 817 |
NESDEC2 |
| 950 | 983 | 943 | 935 | 926 | 893 | 867 | 836 | 806 |
Above Av. | 946 | 954 | 987¾ | 944¾ | 939½ | 931 | 900¾ | 877¼ | 844 | 818½ |
NESDEC3 | 939a | 975a | 1019 | 983 | 980 | 963 | 930 | 903 | 875 | 838 |