ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ... MHHS & HS

Here is a comparison of the various enrollment projections for our schools (MHHS and HS).

 

1) The first was done by Peter Prowda when he was still with the state. He was the state's official enrollment projector until he left and the state eliminated the position. It is the oldest projection being done before the '07 school year. I believe he used a ratio cohort method. I don't know how long a time he averaged the data over, but in the past he used either 3, 5 or 7 years. I suspect his estimates used one of the shorter averaging periods.

 

2) In early ’08, John Boccuzzi used a modified additive cohort method, averaging the last 10 years. As the school population is decreasing, this uses the high years of the past to project the future. He averages rather than doing a trend, and adds rather than ratioing. Both these effects lead to overestimation. I sent him e-mails showing the overestimation.

 

3) The first NESDEC estimate (NESDEC1 ~4/08) used a human to select ratios that looked "reasonable”. In my opinion they also used inflated birth rates.* It also violates the states auditing directions from the Portland case. This is now the official data the NFBOE adopted.

 

4) As a result of my criticisms, NESDEC then did a standard 3-yr cohort survival method (which they claim is widely accepted as the best averaging time) also about 4/08. This is NESDEC2

 

(Average. This is the average of the above four estimates. It was used for comparison with NESDEC3, done a year later, with prior estimates.)

 

5) NESDEC3 is their latest estimate done after the 2008 enrollment data was available (11/08). This apparently uses the same methodology of NESDEC1.

 

The actual enrollment in (October 1) 2007, 2008 was 700, 668 for MHHS and 939, 975 for the HS. The state requires 8 years of projection beyond the submission date.

 

MHHS grades 3-5

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Prowda	698	651	620	610	586	577	527	515	479	484
Boccuzzi	704	702	657	631	630	642	616	600	556	546
NESDEC1		662	636	621	592	583	530	524	488	517
NESDEC2		660	633	617	579	560	501	497	464	490
Above Av.	701	668¾	636½	619¾	596¾	590½	543½	534	496¾	509¼
NESDEC3	700a	668a	643	621	614	604	557	517	492	510

                      Estimated from children born                    assumed births

HS grades 9-12

Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Prowda	944	950	978	926	921	910	880	857	819	793
Boccuzzi	948	964	1003	963	963	959	933	914	877	858
NESDEC1		952	987	947	939	929	897	871	844	817
NESDEC2		950	983	943	935	926	893	867	836	806
Above Av.	946	954	987¾	944¾	939½	931	900¾	877¼	844	818½
NESDEC3	939a	975a	1019	983	980	963	930	903	875	838

 

* Actual births in 2005,6 were 126 and 128. NRSDRC estimated 147 for 2007. I called the state and the 2007 actual was 125!

 

Note. Since state reimbursement is dependent on the enrollment, there is an incentive to overestimate.

 

About 2 years ago, you had data showing every undeveloped plot in New Fairfield. From that data I estimated we were 90% developed. Do you have any more recent data? It would be interesting to know how much developable land is left.

Portland Connecticut Enrollment Projects by the numbers

courant.com/news/local/mr/portland/hc-poraudit0315.artmar15,0,2151477.story

Town May Owe $4.6 Million

Audit: Enrollment Goal Not Met

Town officials and members of the board of education will hold a joint meeting Wednesday to discuss the findings of a state audit of the town's middle school/high school building project.

The audit finds that the town's expectation that the new facility would have an enrollment of 1,070 students has not been met. As a result, the state will most likely require the town to repay approximately $4.6 million in bonds it had borrowed to help pay for the project. Current enrollment at the school is approximately 580 students.

"My first reaction, back when the information was first made available to us, was surprise," said Superintendent Sally Doyen, who was hired in 2005, after the school project was completed. "The data and the documents were submitted at the beginning of the project back in 2001. At that point they were accepted and so there really wasn't any concern by anyone here at that time."

An enrollment projection of 780 students was initially made by then-Superintendent Joseph Castagnola when the project was proposed to the state board of education in June 2001. The figure was based on student enrollment data at the time and an enrollment projection of middle school students developed by the school facilities committee. In September 2001, Castagnola increased the enrollment projection to 1,070 students, based on an increase in the enrollment of kindergarten students that year and information obtained from the town's planning department regarding an increase in building applications and permits. A 10 percent increase was also added by Castagnola to allow for future growth.

Completed in 2004, the $39 million school project included the renovation of the town's aging high school along with the construction of a new middle school building. The result is a modern learning facility with a new science wing, expanded classrooms, a culinary art space, a larger library and a renovated cafeteria. New energy-efficient windows and light fixtures were installed, along with new lockers. The middle school building includes a two-story entryway linked to a 620-seat auditorium shared by both schools.

"I remember sitting down with the superintendent of schools who gave a presentation for the referendum. He told us that this was the school facility to build for the future of Portland," said First Selectwoman Susan Bransfield, who was on the board of selectmen at the time. "Now the auditors are saying even though we gave you all this money and it was approved by the legislature and the money was bonded out, now we want you to give a portion of the money back."

In 2002, the state agreed to pay approximately $22 million of the estimated $39.3 million cost of the project. Portland later got a break in its share of the cost of the project when the town's finance department reported that the annual tax burden was to reach its peak by 2008, at least two years ahead of schedule.

Two bond issues, one for $9,457,000 in June 2003 and another for $9,150,000 in early August of that year, drew interest rates of 3.34 percent and 4.19 percent respectively. Savings from the 5.5 percent interest rate budgeted to repay the 18-year debt amounted to about $5.7 million. Also, the state agreed to pick up a larger share of the building cost, which saved taxpayers an additional $4.6 million.

Doyen said the upcoming meeting, which is open to the public, will help clarify some of the issues so that a decision can be made on what to do next.

"The purpose of the meeting is to determine collectively what the next steps are," said Doyen. "Mrs. Bransfield has invited our two legislators to be in attendance as well. So the community, board of education and our legislators need to work to determine the next steps. After the meeting we will see what the direction is."

Copyright © 2008, The Hartford Courant

A Town meeting, a video, there was never such a project!

New Fairfield schools seek $109M
Superintendent wants taxpayers to help with building renovations

By Brian Saxton
THE NEWS-TIMES

NEW FAIRFIELD -- Old and unreliable heating and ventilating systems. Worn and dated bathroom plumbing fixtures. Cracked toilets and windowless classrooms. A laundry list of problems at three of New Fairfield's public schools are the target of a sweeping $109 million blueprint to fix them with new building projects and renovations. District officials have labeled them "critical elements of concern."

Preliminary estimates predict that the net cost of the overall project after state reimbursements will total $78.2 million. "This is probably the most important issue facing New Fairfield," schools Superintendent Joseph Castagnola said at a public meeting Wednesday night. Current estimates and the time frame now being considered allow for financing the project through bonding over 20 years. The three schools earmarked for improvements are Meeting House Hill School, New Fairfield High School and New Fairfield Middle School.

Castagnola, who made a formal presentation of the plan at the high school, said he hoped the community could work together to develop a final format acceptable to taxpayers at a referendum. "This is about bringing forward the needs of the district and hoping people will come to understand those needs," Castagnola said. "It's important that taxpayers participate in this project."

Another public hearing is scheduled for 7 p.m. on Tuesday at the high school library on Gillotti Road. Castagnola indicated that if the project moved ahead on schedule, a town referendum to approve it could be held by June next year. Because of the magnitude of the work, Castagnola said it would take about two years to complete. After the presentation, Phil Ross, the district's director of buildings and grounds, said the project is important because of the age of the school buildings. "I think the community will be surprised by the numbers, but I think when they take the time to understand them and see what they'll get for their money they'll realize they're getting school buildings that will last for the next 20 years," Ross said. Ross described the proposals as "a first step" but added: "Construction doesn't get any cheaper."

The appointment of a five-member building committee and further studies of the plan by school and town officials are expected over the next few weeks. The district has until June 30 to file an application for state aid with the Connecticut Department of Education School Facilities Unit. The building and renovation proposals range from updating utility systems and safety codes to providing new classrooms and labs and a 1,000-seat auditorium with a new stage for the high and middle schools.

Highlights include:
Meeting House Hill School (Built 1962). Code and safety updates. New water system and energy efficient lighting. New music rooms and renovated art rooms. Replacement of windows with energy efficient units. New classroom wing replaces existing building.
Cost: $28.8 million. (After reimbursement: $19.8 million).

New Fairfield Middle School (Built 1995). New media center. Updated interior entrance vestibule. Office and meeting space for staff and visitors. Additional parking, improved site circulation and field access.
Cost: $12.9 million. (After reimbursement $9.5 million).

New Fairfield High School (Built 1974). Conversion from electric heat to hot water heat. New and renovated technical education classrooms. Replacement of undersized and outdated choral and music rooms. Renovated kitchen, offices, meeting spaces and nurse's suite.
Cost: $67.4 million. (After reimbursement $48.9 million)

The project, which was developed by district officials, school administrators, architects, construction managers and other members of the community, is expected to be a major topic of conversation in town over the coming months.

New Fairfield resident Carolee Harkins, co-president of the Parent-Teacher Organizations at Meeting House Hill School, believes the town should support the project. "They've been talking about this for as long as I've lived in New Fairfield and that's been 11 years," Harkins said. "Now it's time to take care of it." Harkins has two daughters and a son who graduated from the high school and has one son in the middle school and a daughter in fourth-grade. "Although some people may be surprised by the costs involved, a lot of them just don't know the problems inside the schools," said Harkins, who described some classrooms at the high school as "poor." "Our schools are the hub of the town," said Harkins. "I want to see some nice facilities."

Contact Brian Saxton at
bsaxton@newstimes.com
or at (203) 731-3332

this story has been read 1266 times
For more information on this: http://109million.homestead.com

High School e-Bay enrollment sweepstakes ...

Education enrollment has now been reduced to e-Bay like auction for out-of-town students. Low bid wins! Big losers are the taxpayers in the winning town.

The town of Sherman begins an e-Bay auction for their high school enrollment. Presently New Milford provides the education but current contract expires June 30, 2009.

Sherman high school, students currently have several choices for attending high school with no designated high school:

• New Milford
• Region 12 at Shepaug Valley High School in Washington, CT
  
• Brookfield
• Danbury
• New Fairfield

The High School e-Bay enrollment sweepstakes ... motivation is simple saving $$$$$$$. Sherman school district no longer wants to pay a premium. That premium is a per student share of the bond indebtedness to build (or can we say "renovate as new") the school facilities. What is the New Fairfield Board of Education position on the "Sherman e-Bay enrollment sweepstakes"?

The bidding starts when a school district sets a tuition rate for out-of-town students. What is New Fairfield present rate? New Milford has set the rate for the 2007-08 school year at $10,414.30, up from $9,909.38 in 2006-07. New Fairfield is expected to come in considerable lower. If you're interested query any member of the Board of Education as to our bid number?

Real Estate Blog - New Fairfield, CT - June 2007 Real Estate Market Report

Real Estate Blog - New Fairfield, CT - June 2007 Real Estate Market Report

Real Estate Blog - New Fairfield, CT Schools Ask For $109 Million

Real Estate Blog - New Fairfield, CT Schools Ask For $109 Million

Connecti.pdf (application/pdf Object)

Connecti.pdf (application/pdf Object)